Myanmar's civil war

Why is there a civil war in Myanmar?

On February 1, 2021, the army arrested the civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and seized power. Her party, the National League for Democracy, had won a landslide in the election of November 2020. The army said the vote was rigged. The election commission rejected the claim.

Millions of people protested. Soldiers and police shot hundreds of protesters dead in the first months. Opponents formed the National Unity Government and its People's Defence Forces. The army's government declared both of them terrorist groups in May 2021. Many People's Defence Forces trained and fought with ethnic armed organizations that had fought the army for decades in the border regions.

In October 2023, three ethnic armies launched Operation 1027, the biggest offensive against the army since the coup. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army overran scores of army posts in northern Shan State. In November 2023 the Arakan Army opened a second front in Rakhine. In 2024 the MNDAA took Lashio, and the Arakan Army took the army's Western Command headquarters at Ann.

Who controls Myanmar?

No one controls all of Myanmar. The army holds the central plains and the cities where most people live: Naypyidaw, Yangon, Mandalay and Mawlamyine. It runs the government that foreign states deal with. At the end of 2025, resistance forces held about 38% of the country's land, at least 256,000 square kilometers (ISP-Myanmar). The army has lost 101 towns since the coup and retaken 22 of them, three through Chinese mediation (ISP-Myanmar, July 2026).

The Arakan Army controls 14 of Rakhine State's 17 townships and the whole border with Bangladesh. The army holds Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Manaung. On September 4, 2026, the army launched an offensive with about 2,000 troops to retake ground from the Arakan Army (ISP-Myanmar). The International Crisis Group said the offensive stalled by mid-September and that the army then stepped up air strikes.

The Kachin Independence Army holds most of Kachin State's countryside and the rare earth mines near China. Karen and Karenni forces control parts of the eastern border with Thailand. In northern Shan State, China brokered truces under which the MNDAA and the TNLA gave towns back to the army in 2025. The TNLA still holds its home areas around Namhsan.

The army began enforcing a 2010 conscription law in February 2024. It does not publish how many men it has drafted. Independent estimates range from about 90,000 to 140,000. Burma News International's Myanmar Peace Monitor counted more army air attacks in 2025 than in any year since the coup.

How many people have died in Myanmar's civil war?

ACLED, a conflict monitor, counted more than 100,000 deaths from violence in Myanmar between the coup and July 2026. The count includes fighters and civilians on all sides. ACLED builds it from reports of violent events, so some fighting in remote areas goes uncounted. The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), a Burmese rights group, counted 8,211 people killed by the army and groups allied with it by July 28, 2026. The AAPP does not count people killed in battles.

A magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck central Myanmar on March 28, 2025. By late April the official count was more than 3,700 dead and more than 5,100 injured (UN). The army declared a ceasefire after the quake, but ACLED data showed that it kept up air strikes.

About 4.1 million people were displaced inside Myanmar on October 19, 2026 (UNHCR). About 3.8 million of them fled their homes after the coup. UNHCR also counts 1.6 million refugees and asylum seekers from Myanmar in nearby countries. Most are Rohingya in Bangladesh, and many of them fled in 2017, before the coup.

Why does China need Myanmar's rare earths?

Myanmar mined about 22,000 tonnes of rare earths in 2025, the fourth-largest amount in the world (USGS). Its mines produce heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium. These metals help magnets keep their strength when they get hot, in electric car motors, wind turbines and guided missiles. Almost all of Myanmar's output goes to China for refining. Myanmar supplied 53% of China's rare earth imports by weight in the first nine months of 2025 (ISP-Myanmar, from Chinese customs data).

Most of the mines are in Kachin State, near the Chinese border. In October 2024 the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) captured the main mining area at Chipwi. China closed the border gates. The KIA began taxing every tonne. China reopened the border gates with KIA-held areas in October 2025. In 2026 the United States also began talking to Myanmar's government about rare earths.