Mexico's cartel war

Why is there a drug war in Mexico?

Mexico has been a transit country for drugs bound for the United States since at least the 1980s. Mexican cartels took over from Colombian groups as the main suppliers of cocaine to the US market. They later added heroin, methamphetamine and fentanyl.

In December 2006 President Felipe Calderón sent the army into Michoacán to fight the cartels. Calderón argued that the cartels had grown so powerful that only the military could confront them. Critics say the strategy broke large cartels into smaller, more violent groups and drove homicides to record levels.

President Enrique Peña Nieto (2012 to 2018) kept the military deployed. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018 to 2024) promised a policy of "hugs, not bullets". He also created the National Guard and gave the army more powers. President Claudia Sheinbaum took office on October 1, 2024. Her Security Secretary, Omar García Harfuch, runs a strategy built on intelligence-led operations, arrests of cartel leaders and the National Guard.

How many people have the cartels killed?

No single number measures the toll. Mexico's statistics agency INEGI counted 27,989 homicides in 2025, down 16.6% from 2024. INEGI counts every homicide from death certificates, including those with no link to cartels. SESNSP, the government's security data system, counts intentional homicide cases opened by prosecutors. SESNSP reported that the daily average fell from 86.9 in September 2024 to 42.2 in September 2026, a drop of 52%.

Some analysts doubt part of the fall. The research groups México Evalúa and Causa en Común say some killings may now be recorded as disappearances or other crimes. Sheinbaum says the fall comes from her security strategy and not from changes in how crimes are recorded.

The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) counts deaths in fighting between organized armed groups. It recorded 7,904 such deaths in Mexico in 2025, almost all in fighting between cartels. That made Mexico the fifth deadliest country for organized violence, after Ukraine, Sudan, Palestine and DR Congo. From 2016 to 2025, UCDP counted 106,713 such deaths in Mexico.

Mexico's national registry listed about 130,000 people as disappeared since 2006 in March 2026. The government said then that about 40,000 of them showed signs of life in other official records, such as tax filings. Families' search groups questioned that review.

Who are the main cartels?

The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and the Sinaloa Cartel are the two largest. Together they account for most of the deaths in cartel fighting that UCDP counts.

The CJNG was founded around 2010 in Jalisco. Its leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, was a former police officer. He built the CJNG into a cartel present in most Mexican states that ships fentanyl and methamphetamine to the United States. The US offered $15 million for information leading to his arrest. The Mexican army killed him in Tapalpa, Jalisco, on February 22, 2026. CJNG members then blocked roads and attacked security forces in 20 states. US authorities name his stepson Juan Carlos Valencia González, known as El 03, as the new leader. The CJNG has not confirmed this.

Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán and Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada once led the Sinaloa Cartel. The cartel split after Zambada was arrested in the United States in July 2024. His faction, Los Mayos, and the Chapitos, led by El Chapo's sons, went to war in Culiacán in September 2024. A US court sentenced Zambada to life in prison on July 20, 2026. Uno TV, a Mexican broadcaster, counted 3,724 homicides in Sinaloa in the war's first two years.

The Gulf Cartel and the Cartel del Noreste operate along the border in Tamaulipas. La Nueva Familia Michoacana, Cárteles Unidos, Los Viagras and the Juárez Cartel hold smaller areas. The United States has designated all eight groups as foreign terrorist organizations.

How could the cartel war end?

Mexico's governments have tried several approaches since 2006, and none has ended the war.

Calderón and Peña Nieto used the military to arrest or kill cartel leaders. The older cartels weakened, but new and more violent groups formed. Homicides kept rising. López Obrador avoided direct confrontation but still relied on the military. More than 190,000 homicides were recorded during his term.

Sheinbaum's government says its strategy is working. It points to the 52% fall in the daily homicide average and to the killing of El Mencho. Officials credit intelligence work, the National Guard and arrests of cartel leaders.

No cartel has been defeated. The CJNG has not broken apart after El Mencho's death, according to US government assessments. The Sinaloa Cartel's two factions are still at war. Mexico's government argues that the violence will continue as long as Americans buy drugs and US guns flow south. The US government argues that Mexico must do more to dismantle the cartels and their fentanyl labs.