The Nile dam dispute

Why are Egypt and Ethiopia fighting over the Nile?

About 85% of the Nile's water comes from the Ethiopian highlands, through the Blue Nile, the Atbara and the Sobat. Egypt, at the end of the river, uses more of it than any other country. In a 1959 treaty, Egypt and Sudan divided the river's average yearly flow between themselves: 55.5 billion cubic meters for Egypt and 18.5 billion for Sudan. Ethiopia was not a party, and it has never recognized the treaty.

Ethiopia laid the dam's foundation stone on April 2, 2011, two months after protests forced Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak from power. The World Bank and Western lenders did not fund it. Ethiopia raised most of the roughly $5 billion cost at home, through the state budget, bonds sold to citizens and payroll contributions. More than 40% of Ethiopians had no electricity in 2024, by World Bank figures.

Egypt calls its Nile share a "historical and legal right." It wants a binding agreement on how much water the dam must release in droughts. Ethiopia calls the treaties of the colonial era unfair. It says a binding deal would limit its right to use a river that rises on its land. That gap has not closed in more than a decade of talks.

How does the dam affect Egypt and Sudan?

A hydropower dam does not use up the water that passes through its turbines. It takes water from the river while its reservoir fills, and it loses some to evaporation. Ethiopia filled the GERD's reservoir in stages each rainy season from 2020. In January 2026 Egypt's water minister, Hani Sewilam, said that recycling and saving water had spared Egypt some of the damage. He said Ethiopia should compensate Egypt for its losses. The GERD's reservoir loses about 1.5 billion cubic meters a year to evaporation, by one estimate. Lake Nasser, behind Egypt's Aswan High Dam, loses 10 to 16 billion.

Egypt's main fear is a long drought. Ethiopia could then hold water back to keep its turbines running, and no agreement says how much it must release. Ethiopia says the dam does not harm downstream countries and that it evens out the river's flow, which reduces floods in Sudan.

In late September 2025, weeks after the inauguration, floods hit Sudan and farmland along the Nile in Egypt. Egypt's water ministry said the dam had released water abruptly. It called the releases "reckless" and the flood "man-made." Ethiopia said the dam had reduced the floods. Sudan's irrigation ministry named several causes: the GERD's releases, climate change and a late rainy season. In July 2026 Sudanese officials said the GERD's releases had dropped to 150 to 180 million cubic meters a day, lowering the river at Khartoum's water intakes.

Why have the Nile dam talks failed?

Every round has stalled on the same two questions: how much water the dam must release in a drought, and whether the rules are binding. Egypt and Sudan want a legally binding agreement with a way to settle disputes. Ethiopia has offered guidelines that it can revise. It says a binding deal would cap its future use of the river.

In March 2015 the three countries signed a Declaration of Principles in Khartoum. The United States and the World Bank hosted talks in 2019 and 2020. Ethiopia skipped the final round in February 2020, saying it needed more time to consult at home. Egypt initialed the US draft alone. The African Union led talks in 2020 and 2021 without a deal. Egypt and Sudan took the dispute to the UN Security Council in July 2021, and in September the council sent it back to the African Union. In July 2023 Sisi and Abiy agreed to reach a deal within four months. Egypt declared those talks over in December 2023.

In January 2026 President Trump offered to restart US mediation. Egypt and Sudan welcomed the offer. Ethiopia has not taken it up and prefers talks under the African Union. At the G7 summit in France on June 17, 2026, Trump told Sisi that the Nile was "getting a little emptier than it should be." In March 2026 Ethiopia announced plans for three more dams on the Blue Nile. Egypt says it will not recognize new dams on the Nile without a prior legal agreement.

On October 6, 2026 President Sisi called Egypt's water share "an enshrined historical and legal right that cannot be reduced or touched." On October 26 Ethiopia's water ministry called for "hydro-diplomacy" on shared rivers.

Upstream, six states have ratified the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA): Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan. It entered into force on October 13, 2024. It shares the river by "equitable and reasonable" use and sets up a Nile River Basin Commission. Egypt and Sudan reject it, saying it ignores their existing shares.

Could Egypt and Ethiopia go to war over the Nile?

Egypt spent $2.5 billion on its military in 2025, SIPRI estimates, and Ethiopia spent $924 million. Ethiopia has more soldiers: 503,000 active troops, the most in Africa, against Egypt's 438,500, by IISS counts. Egypt flies French Rafale jets. On October 28, 2026 Prime Minister Abiy said Ethiopia had received its first Su-35 fighter jets from Russia.

The dam stands about 1,200 km from Egypt's border and 14 km from Sudan's. Analysts say a strike that broke the dam could flood Sudan, Egypt's partner. In June 2013 President Mohamed Morsi said "all options are open." In March 2021 President Sisi called Egypt's share of the water "a red line" and warned of "unimaginable instability" in the region, while saying he was not making a threat. In October 2020 President Trump said Egypt might "blow up that dam," and Ethiopia summoned the US ambassador over the remark.

Egypt has built ties with Ethiopia's neighbors. It signed a defense pact with Somalia in August 2024 and held a summit with Eritrea and Somalia in Asmara in October 2024. On October 4, 2026 the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan signed the El Alamein Declaration. It rejects unilateral steps that harm Egypt's and Sudan's use of the Nile, and any recognition of Somaliland, where Ethiopia signed a deal for sea access in January 2024. Ethiopia's foreign ministry answered with a statement restating its claim to the Blue Nile and to access to the Red Sea. Ethiopia's army chief accuses Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan of backing the armed groups fighting Ethiopia's government, and all three deny it. On October 1, 2026 Ethiopia expelled an Egyptian diplomat, and Egypt expelled an Ethiopian diplomat the next day.