China-Taiwan: The Unfinished Civil War

How the fall of China's 2,000-year-old empire led to civil war, why neither side accepted the 1949 split across the Taiwan Strait, and how Taiwan's semiconductor fabs and democratic revolution turned an unfinished war into a global crisis.

1911 to 2026 · 3 parts · 19 lessons · about 2 hours

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Contemporary photojournalism style image of the Taiwan Strait with naval vessels and the island of Taiwan visible

Questions this course answers

Three parts, 19 lessons

Part 1 · 1911 to 1996

The Unfinished Civil War

How one China became two in 1949, why the civil war never formally ended, and how the split survived the Cold War and the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis. 6 lessons · 34 min
  1. 1

    Sun Yat-sen and the Republic

    In 1911, a 2,000-year-old imperial system collapsed in six weeks. Sun Yat-sen gave China a revolutionary mythology the KMT and CCP both claim.

    5 min
  2. 2

    Nationalists vs. Communists

    Chiang Kai-shek turned on his Communist allies in April 1927, killing thousands in Shanghai. It split China's revolution into two armed camps for 22 years.

    6 min
  3. 3

    United Fronts and Civil War

    The KMT and CCP fought Japan together while preparing for the civil war to follow. The Long March cost the CCP over 90% of its forces but saved its leaders.

    6 min
  4. 4

    1949: The Moment One China Became Two

    Mao declared the People's Republic on October 1, 1949. Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan with 2 million refugees, China's gold, and a claim to rule all China.

    6 min
  5. 5

    Two Chinas in the Cold War

    For twenty-three years, Taiwan held China's UN seat. Then Nixon went to Beijing and most of the world switched its recognition to the People's Republic.

    6 min
  6. 6

    The Third Strait Crisis

    China fired missiles near Taiwan to stop an election. The US sent carriers. Taiwan voted anyway, electing Lee Teng-hui, the candidate Beijing hated most.

    5 min
Part 2 · 1895 to 2026

Taiwan's Transformation

How Taiwan went from a military dictatorship to a semiconductor superpower and a democracy, making the conflict about more than territory. 6 lessons · 36 min
  1. 7

    Taiwan Before Chiang

    Japanese rule gave Taiwan railways and 70% literacy the mainland lacked. In the February 28 Incident of 1947, KMT troops killed 18,000 to 28,000 civilians.

    6 min
  2. 8

    The Tiger That Wasn't Supposed to Exist

    Taiwan's per capita income rose from $100 to over $33,000. The state directed every stage: land reform, export zones, and a 1987 bet on a foundry called TSMC.

    5 min
  3. 9

    Taiwan's Democratic Revolution

    Chiang Ching-kuo, a former secret-police chief, ended 38 years of martial law instead of opening fire. Within twelve years Taiwan was a full democracy.

    6 min
  4. 10

    Semiconductor Island

    One company in one science park makes over 90% of the world's most advanced chips. Every iPhone and AI server depends on TSMC's fabs in Hsinchu, Taiwan.

    7 min
  5. 11

    The Identity Question

    'Chinese only' identification fell from 25% in 1992 to 2.4% by 2024. The shift is generational, driven by young Taiwanese with no mainland memory.

    6 min
  6. 12

    China's Rise and Taiwan's Dilemma

    Taiwanese capital helped build China's export economy. Economic ties were meant to make conflict irrational but gave Beijing leverage over Taiwan instead.

    6 min
Part 3 · 2005 to 2026

The Crisis

How China's 2005 Anti-Secession Law, the 100-mile Taiwan Strait, and untested alliances shape the risk of war, and why a blockade may be likelier than an invasion. 7 lessons · 43 min
  1. 13

    The Anti-Secession Law

    In 2005, China passed a law obligating itself to use force against Taiwan under three conditions, each vague enough for Beijing to invoke whenever it chooses.

    6 min
  2. 14

    Hong Kong: The Preview

    'One country, two systems' was designed for Taiwan and tested on Hong Kong. After the 2020 National Security Law, its support in Taiwan fell to single digits.

    6 min
  3. 15

    The 100-Mile Moat

    The strait is 100 miles wide, Taiwan has 14 usable beaches behind seventy years of fortifications, and anti-ship missiles cost less than the ships they sink.

    6 min
  4. 16

    The First Island Chain

    An arc of islands from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines contains China's navy. Over $2.45 trillion in trade passes through the strait each year.

    6 min
  5. 17

    Who Fights?

    Japan cannot stay neutral in a Taiwan war. There is no Asian NATO, and no treaty requires Japan, Australia, or the Philippines to defend Taiwan.

    6 min
  6. 18

    America's Dilemma

    Biden said 'yes' to defending Taiwan four times and was walked back four times. Strategic ambiguity works only while no one forces the question.

    6 min
  7. 19

    Could China Take Taiwan?

    CSIS war-gamed a Chinese invasion 24 times. It usually failed, costing two US carriers and 90% of China's amphibious fleet. A blockade may be likelier.

    7 min

Lessons you can finish in one sitting.

Each lesson tells one part of the story and explains why it happened, with maps, images and quotes from the sources. A few questions at the end check that it stuck, and the key facts go into the course's flashcards.

  • 5 to 7 minutes a lesson
  • Three to four questions after each lesson
  • 152 flashcards for this course
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