Russia and NATO: the shadow war on Europe's eastern flank

What is the Russia-NATO shadow war?

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, NATO governments have accused Russia of a campaign of sabotage, spying and provocation across Europe. By December 2025, an AP database counted 145 incidents that Western officials tied to Russia, to groups linked to it or to Belarus. Poland and Estonia were targeted most often. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told AP that Russia has no connection to the campaign.

The campaign has no front line. It includes damage to undersea cables, arson and bomb plots, drones and jets entering NATO airspace, and GPS jamming over the Baltic Sea. The incidents continued in 2026. Germany says Russia was behind an attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport in August. In October, drones hit merchant ships off Romania and Bulgaria.

Russia rejects the accusations. Moscow says Western leaders promised in 1990 that NATO would not expand east. Declassified US records show that Secretary of State James Baker told Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in February 1990 that NATO would not move "one inch" east if a united Germany joined it. Western governments say those talks were about East Germany, and no such pledge was written into any treaty. NATO has grown from 16 members to 32 since 1999, and Russia says the alliance's troops, exercises and spending near its borders threaten it. Russia recreated its Moscow and Leningrad military districts in 2024 after Finland and Sweden joined NATO. In December 2021, Russia demanded written guarantees that NATO would stop expanding and pull its forces back from members that joined after 1997. NATO rejected the demands. Russia also objects to the US missile defense bases at Deveselu in Romania and Redzikowo in Poland. In November 2024, Russia's foreign ministry called the Redzikowo base a priority target. Poland says it is purely defensive. In September 2025, Peskov said NATO was in effect at war with Russia because it arms Ukraine.

Who is damaging undersea cables in the Baltic Sea?

Power cables, gas pipelines and data cables cross the Baltic Sea between Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden, Poland and Germany. Several have been damaged since 2022. In most cases a ship dragged its anchor along the seabed. No court has yet found that a crew did it on purpose.

In September 2022, explosions destroyed three of the four Nord Stream gas pipelines between Russia and Germany. German prosecutors charged a former Ukrainian officer, Serhii K., with leading the attack. His trial opened in Hamburg on October 14, 2026, and he denies the charges. Russia blames the United States and Britain.

In October 2023, the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia was damaged. Finnish investigators say the anchor of the Hong Kong-flagged cargo ship Newnew Polar Bear caused it. They have not established whether it was deliberate. In November 2024, two data cables were cut after the Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 sailed over them. Germany's defense minister, Boris Pistorius, said he assumed it was sabotage.

On December 25, 2024, the EstLink 2 power cable between Finland and Estonia and several data cables were damaged. Finland seized the tanker Eagle S, which it says dragged its anchor for about 90 km. Finnish customs called the Eagle S part of Russia's shadow fleet, the aging tankers that carry Russian oil past Western sanctions. Prosecutors charged the captain and two officers. In October 2025, the Helsinki District Court dismissed the case, ruling that Finland lacked jurisdiction. The Helsinki Court of Appeal revived it on August 27, 2026.

On December 31, 2025, a data cable between Helsinki and Tallinn was damaged. Finland seized the cargo ship Fitburg, which had sailed from St. Petersburg. Finnish police said in March 2026 that its anchor caused the damage.

NATO launched Baltic Sentry on January 14, 2025. Frigates, patrol aircraft and naval drones watch ships near undersea cables. NATO's maritime command said in June 2026 that its response time to an incident had fallen from about 17 hours to one hour.

Have Russian drones entered NATO airspace?

Russian drones attacking Ukraine often cross into neighboring NATO countries. NATO governments say some crossings are deliberate tests of their air defenses. Russia says it does not target NATO countries.

On the night of September 9 to 10, 2025, at least 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, by the Polish government's count. Polish F-16s and Dutch F-35s shot down several. It was the first time NATO aircraft fired on threats in allied airspace. A missile fired at the drones hit a house in the village of Wyryki-Wola. Poland asked for talks under Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which lets a member call consultations when it feels threatened. NATO launched Operation Eastern Sentry on September 12 to strengthen air defenses along its eastern border. Russia's defense ministry said it had not planned to strike any targets in Poland.

On September 19, 2025, three Russian MiG-31 fighters entered Estonian airspace near Vaindloo Island for nearly 12 minutes. Estonia also asked for Article 4 talks. Russia's defense ministry said the jets had stayed over neutral waters.

On September 22, 2025, drones shut Copenhagen Airport for hours, and more drones were seen over other Danish airports in the following days. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called it the most serious attack yet on Danish critical infrastructure. Danish authorities did not name who flew the drones. Russia denied involvement.

On May 7, 2026, two drones from Russian airspace hit an oil depot in Rēzekne, Latvia. Latvian officials said they were most likely Ukrainian drones diverted by Russian jamming. Russia's defense ministry accused Latvia of letting Ukraine use its airspace, and Latvia rejected the claim. Prime Minister Evika Siliņa fired her defense minister, and her government fell a week later.

In July 2026, an object from a Russian attack on western Ukraine crashed in Poland's Lublin province. NATO allies met on August 12 and said Russia bore full responsibility for that crash and for drones over Romania.

Russian drones attacking Ukraine's Danube ports have crossed into Romania dozens of times since 2022. Romanian and NATO jets have shot down six drones over Romania in 2026. In October 2026, drones hit merchant ships off Romania and Bulgaria, including the tanker Yara J inside Romanian waters. On October 17, Romanian F-16s shot down two jet-powered drones near Sulina. Romania's acting defense minister said they were likely Russian Geran-4s. Russia says it targets ships carrying weapons to Ukraine.

Is Russia jamming GPS over the Baltic Sea?

Since 2023, planes and ships around the Baltic Sea have often lost GPS signals or received false ones. Tens of thousands of flights have been affected. Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland blame Russia. In 2025, researchers at Gdynia Maritime University in Poland traced jamming signals to sites on the coast of Kaliningrad. Russia has not admitted to the jamming.

The interference has shifted from blocking signals to faking them, a technique called spoofing. In April 2024, Finnair suspended flights to Tartu in Estonia for a month because its planes could not land there without GPS. A monitoring station on the Danish island of Bornholm logged 30 cases of jamming or spoofing by August 2026, compared with 16 in all of 2025, the Danish broadcaster DR reported.

Kaliningrad is Russia's westernmost territory, an exclave between Poland and Lithuania. It hosts the Baltic Fleet, nuclear-capable Iskander missiles and S-400 air defenses. Some analysts say the jamming protects Kaliningrad from drone attacks. The jamming also affects civilian aircraft and ships across the region.

How is NATO responding to Russia?

NATO has launched two new operations and agreed on its largest spending increase since the Cold War.

Baltic Sentry, launched in January 2025, guards undersea cables in the Baltic Sea with frigates, patrol aircraft and naval drones. U.S. Marines have flown small drones for it from southern Finland since February 2025.

Eastern Sentry, launched in September 2025 after the drone incursion into Poland, strengthens air defenses along NATO's eastern border.

At The Hague summit in June 2025, NATO leaders agreed to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035: at least 3.5% on core defense and up to 1.5% on related spending such as infrastructure. Spain said it would not need to reach 5%. NATO estimates that in 2026 Lithuania will spend 5.33% of GDP on core defense, Estonia 5.1%, Latvia 4.92% and Poland 4.68%.

Germany formed Panzer Brigade 45 in Lithuania in April 2025, its first brigade based abroad since World War II. It had about 2,000 people in July 2026 and is due to reach 4,800 soldiers by the end of 2027. In a war it would help defend the Suwałki Gap, the Polish-Lithuanian border between Kaliningrad and Belarus.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania agreed in January 2024 to build the Baltic Defense Line, with bunkers, anti-tank barriers and ditches along their borders with Russia and Belarus. Poland is building a similar line called East Shield. The Baltic states, Finland and Poland also plan a drone wall of sensors and counter-drone weapons.

The United States has about 80,000 troops in Europe. In 2026 it halted an armored brigade's deployment to Poland and began a review that could cut its forces in Europe.