China and Taiwan

Why does China want Taiwan?

China's Qing dynasty ceded Taiwan to Japan in 1895, after losing a war. Japan ruled the island for 50 years. When Japan lost World War II in 1945, the Republic of China took over Taiwan. In 1949 the Republic of China's Nationalist government lost the civil war on the mainland to China's Communist Party and retreated to Taiwan. For decades both governments claimed to rule all of China.

Most countries at first recognized the government in Taipei. In 1971 the UN gave China's seat to the People's Republic, in Resolution 2758. China says the resolution settled that Taiwan is part of China. The United States and Taiwan say it does not mention Taiwan and did not decide its status. The United States switched its recognition to Beijing in 1979. Today 12 countries recognize Taiwan, down from 22 when Tsai Ing-wen became Taiwan's president in 2016.

China's government says Taiwan has belonged to China since ancient times. It cites the 1943 Cairo Declaration, in which the leaders of the United States, Britain and China said Taiwan would be returned to China. China says reunification is inevitable. In 2022 President Xi Jinping said China would strive for peaceful reunification "with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort," but "will never promise to renounce the use of force." China's Anti-Secession Law of 2005 says the state shall use "non-peaceful means" if Taiwan moves to secede or if peaceful reunification becomes impossible. Military analysts also point to Taiwan's position in the middle of the chain of islands, from Japan to the Philippines, that separates China's coast from the open Pacific.

Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te says the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China "are not subordinate to each other." The People's Republic has never ruled Taiwan. Lai's government says only Taiwan's 23 million people can decide its future. China cut off official contact with Taiwan's government in 2016, after President Tsai declined to accept the "1992 Consensus." China and Taiwan's main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), say both sides agreed in 1992 that there is one China. The KMT adds that each side may interpret what "China" means. Tsai's and Lai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) says no such consensus was reached. China's government calls Lai a "separatist."

The KMT favors talks with Beijing. Its chair, Cheng Li-wun, met Xi in Beijing on April 10, 2026. It was the first meeting of the two parties' leaders in almost a decade.

What military drills has China held around Taiwan?

China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has held six large exercises around Taiwan since August 2022. The first followed a visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The May 2024 drill came three days after Lai took office. China had called his inauguration speech a "confession of independence." Its military called the drill "strong punishment" for the "separatist acts" of "Taiwan independence" forces. The April 2025 drill, Strait Thunder-2025A, followed Lai's description of China as a "foreign hostile force" in March. Taiwan's government says the drills are intimidation.

The largest was Justice Mission, on December 29 and 30, 2025. It came less than two weeks after the United States approved $11.1 billion of arms for Taiwan. China's Eastern Theater Command called it a "serious warning" to "Taiwan independence" separatist forces and "external interference forces." China declared eight zones around Taiwan closed to ships and aircraft. On December 30 it fired 27 rockets into the sea north and south of the island. Taiwan's defense ministry said 10 of them landed inside its contiguous zone, within 24 nautical miles of its coast, the closest ever. China's Eastern Theater Command said the drill practiced blockade operations. Taiwan's port authority said shipping was not affected.

In 2025 a record 3,764 Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan's air defense identification zone, 22% more than in 2024, according to the CSIS China Power Project. In 2026 China had held no large exercise around Taiwan as of October 31. From January to September 2026, Taiwan counted about 2,030 Chinese military aircraft sorties around the island, less than half as many as in the same months of 2025, by the count of the Taiwan Security Monitor at George Mason University. About seven Chinese navy ships were near Taiwan on an average day, within the range of 2025.

China has used its coast guard more. Since June 1, 2026, Chinese coast guard ships have patrolled the waters east of Taiwan. China began the patrols after Japan and the Philippines announced talks on their sea border, and it calls them law enforcement. Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council says China has no rights in those waters. Near Kinmen, China began regular coast guard patrols in February 2024. That month two Chinese fishermen died when their speedboat capsized while fleeing Taiwan's coast guard. China blamed Taiwan for the deaths. Taiwan's coast guard said the boat had entered its restricted waters and overturned while evading inspection. Chinese coast guard ships have entered the restricted waters around Kinmen 117 times since then, Taiwan's coast guard said in June 2026. China does not recognize those waters.

Why is Taiwan so important to the world?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) had 69.9% of the world's contract chipmaking revenue in 2025, according to TrendForce. It makes most of the world's most advanced chips, which go into phones, AI data centers and weapons. TSMC began making 2nm chips in Taiwan at the end of 2025.

A Chinese blockade or invasion of Taiwan would cut off most of the world's supply of advanced chips. The United States has tried to reduce that risk. In July 2026 TSMC raised its planned investment in Arizona to $265 billion. Since 2022 the US has also restricted exports of advanced chipmaking machines to China.

Taiwan also matters for shipping. About $2.45 trillion of goods passed through the Taiwan Strait in 2022, more than a fifth of the world's maritime trade.

What would happen if China invaded Taiwan?

To invade, China would have to move hundreds of thousands of troops across 130 to 180 km of open water and supply them on the other side. Analysts say only a few of Taiwan's beaches are suitable for a landing. CSIS, a Washington think tank, ran a war game of a Chinese invasion 24 times in 2023. In most runs the invasion failed. That result depended on Taiwan resisting and on US forces joining the fight quickly from bases in Japan. The United States, Taiwan and Japan lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and tens of thousands of troops. In the base case about 10,000 Chinese troops were killed, and China lost 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships.

Many analysts see a blockade as more likely. China could declare closed zones around Taiwan and use its navy, coast guard and air force to stop ships and planes from reaching the island. Taiwan imports about 97% of its energy. China rehearsed a blockade of Taiwan in the Justice Mission drill of December 2025.

China could also try to take Taiwan's outer islands first. Kinmen sits about 10 km from the Chinese city of Xiamen and about 190 km from Taiwan. A move on Kinmen would test whether the United States and Japan would respond.